Since the adoption of the Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT) format of the National Certification Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses (NCLEX-RN), no studies have been reported in the literature on predictors of successful performance by baccalaureate nursing graduates on the licensure examination. In this study, a discriminant analysis was used to identify which of 21 variables can be significant predictors of success on the CAT NCLEX-RN. The convenience sample consisted of 289 individuals who graduated from a baccalaureate nursing program between 1995 and 1998. Seven significant predictor variables were identified. The total number of C+ or lower grades earned in nursing theory courses was the best predictor, followed by grades in several individual nursing courses. More than 93 per cent of graduates were correctly classified. Ninety-four per cent of NCLEX "passes" were correctly classified, as were 92 per cent of NCLEX failures. This degree of accuracy in classifying CAT NCLEX-RN failures represents a marked improvement over results reported in previous studies of licensure examinations, and suggests the discriminant function will be helpful in identifying future students in danger of failure. J Prof Nurs 17:158-165, 2001.